What I am going to write applies to rapid and in lesser extent to blitz.
One shouldn't be surprised when 2700+ classical superGMs struggle to maintain 2700 in Rapid, let alone touch 2800.
The rating pool is structurally deflated. FIDE effectively admitted this in October 2022 when they had to inject points to prevent the top pool from being farmed by rising prodigies. Back then, Pragg was 2687 in Classical but an absurd 1927 in Rapid. Gukesh had a similar rating situation.
Why does this happen? Because outside the elite, almost nobody plays rapid that often. Juniors play dozens of classical gains a year, gain tons of Elo in classical, but their rapid rating remains frozen (or almost frozen) from when they were younger. When they finally play more rapid, they act as massive rating sinks. They draw or beat top 100 and thus they drain points out of the top tier.
What did FIDE do in Oct 2022? They bumped lagging rapid ratings up to Classical minus 100. There is de-facto a gap (around 100 rating points) since rating points don't materialize out of nowhere in a low activity pool. There are few mechanisms, like k-factor mismatch and others, to introduce points in the pool, but that happens in classical too, so the gap stay.
Elo does not care about "move quality" or engine accuracy. It cares strictly about rating differences. In classical, a 2820 GM plays a dense field of 2760s, a +2 score holds the rating. But in rapid, where the next tier is deflated down to 2680–2700, that same 2820 player has to score 75%+ just not to lose points. In general it wouldn't matter if a pool is deflated compared to another, as long as the rating differences hold, but the community uses classical rating as a strong reference.
Because FIDE doesn't repeat point injections, the cycle continues: new juniors improve, their rapid ratings lag, and the top 100 gets eroded all over again. Active top players lose rating to this deflation, while inactive players tend to preserve or go down much less than the active ones.
(I am saying this for some years already in various comments here and there, but I never formalized it with some data)
Then some data. Source: the October 2026 list, where I considered only the top 100 relatively young players (born 2000 or later). Why younger players? Because those show the rating gap problem the best.
| Metric |
Rapid - Classical |
Blitz - Classical |
| Max deficit |
-245 — Leonardo Costa (Rapid: 2310, Classical: 2555) |
-228 — Aditya Mittal (Blitz: 2393, Classical: 2621) |
| Max surplus |
+38 — Jeffery Xiong (Rapid: 2694, Classical: 2656) |
+47 — Jeffery Xiong (Blitz: 2703, Classical: 2656) |
| Average Difference |
-73.97 |
-63.75 |
| Q1 (25th percentile) |
-118.00 |
-109.50 |
| Median (50th percentile) |
-74.50 |
-57.00 |
| Q3 (75th percentile) |
-32.50 |
-17.00 |
October 2026 FIDE List pick
| # |
Title |
Name |
Classical |
Rapid |
Blitz |
Rapid - Classical |
Blitz - Classical |
| 1 |
GM |
Sindarov, Javokhir |
2782 |
2747 |
2725 |
-35 |
-57 |
| 2 |
GM |
Abdusattorov, Nodirbek |
2780 |
2704 |
2819 |
-76 |
+39 |
| 3 |
GM |
Praggnanandhaa R |
2763 |
2730 |
2712 |
-33 |
-51 |
| 4 |
GM |
Keymer, Vincent |
2761 |
2635 |
2628 |
-126 |
-133 |
| 5 |
GM |
Firouzja, Alireza |
2757 |
2737 |
2797 |
-20 |
+40 |
| 6 |
GM |
Erigaisi Arjun |
2746 |
2740 |
2766 |
-6 |
+20 |
| 7 |
GM |
Erdogmus, Yagiz Kaan |
2731 |
2536 |
2579 |
-195 |
-152 |
| 8 |
GM |
Tabatabaei, M. Amin |
2728 |
2575 |
2611 |
-153 |
-117 |
| 9 |
GM |
Niemann, Hans Moke |
2717 |
2675 |
2711 |
-42 |
-6 |
| 10 |
GM |
Yakubboev, Nodirbek |
2712 |
2615 |
2585 |
-97 |
-127 |
| 11 |
GM |
Gukesh D |
2710 |
2686 |
2659 |
-24 |
-51 |
| 12 |
GM |
Nihal Sarin |
2709 |
2712 |
2721 |
+3 |
+12 |
| 13 |
GM |
Sevian, Samuel |
2708 |
2664 |
2658 |
-44 |
-50 |
| 14 |
GM |
Maghsoodloo, Parham |
2705 |
2689 |
2638 |
-16 |
-67 |
| 15 |
GM |
Liang, Awonder |
2685 |
2553 |
2595 |
-132 |
-90 |
| 16 |
GM |
Esipenko, Andrey |
2680 |
2658 |
2645 |
-22 |
-35 |
| 17 |
GM |
Suleymanli, Aydin |
2679 |
2581 |
2566 |
-98 |
-113 |
| 18 |
GM |
Pranav, V |
2677 |
2592 |
2582 |
-85 |
-95 |
| 19 |
GM |
Pranesh M |
2674 |
2552 |
2589 |
-122 |
-85 |
| 20 |
GM |
Sarana, Alexey |
2671 |
2650 |
2667 |
-21 |
-4 |
| 21 |
GM |
Svane, Frederik |
2662 |
2497 |
2554 |
-165 |
-108 |
| 22 |
GM |
Muradli, Mahammad |
2662 |
2553 |
2559 |
-109 |
-103 |
| 23 |
GM |
Martirosyan, Haik M. |
2661 |
2625 |
2686 |
-36 |
+25 |
| 24 |
GM |
Murzin, Volodar |
2656 |
2631 |
2670 |
-25 |
+14 |
| 25 |
GM |
Xiong, Jeffery |
2656 |
2694 |
2703 |
+38 |
+47 |
| 26 |
GM |
Deac, Bogdan-Daniel |
2654 |
2609 |
2650 |
-45 |
-4 |
| 27 |
GM |
Vokhidov, Shamsiddin |
2649 |
2516 |
2551 |
-133 |
-98 |
| 28 |
GM |
Sargsyan, Shant |
2648 |
2622 |
2576 |
-26 |
-72 |
| 29 |
GM |
Aryan Chopra |
2646 |
2598 |
2603 |
-48 |
-43 |
| 30 |
GM |
Sadhwani, Raunak |
2645 |
2592 |
2678 |
-53 |
+33 |
| 31 |
GM |
Gurel, Ediz |
2642 |
2539 |
2599 |
-103 |
-43 |
| 32 |
GM |
Theodorou, Nikolas |
2639 |
2593 |
2556 |
-46 |
-83 |
| 33 |
GM |
Hakobyan, Aram |
2638 |
2558 |
2595 |
-80 |
-43 |
| 34 |
GM |
Lazavik, Denis |
2636 |
2624 |
2644 |
-12 |
+8 |
| 35 |
GM |
Mishra, Abhimanyu |
2636 |
2585 |
2541 |
-51 |
-95 |
| 36 |
GM |
Mendonca, Leon Luke |
2629 |
2548 |
2520 |
-81 |
-109 |
| 37 |
GM |
Bjerre, Jonas Buhl |
2627 |
2580 |
2507 |
-47 |
-120 |
| 38 |
GM |
Jacobson, Brandon |
2627 |
2502 |
2527 |
-125 |
-100 |
| 39 |
GM |
Maurizzi, MarcAndria |
2624 |
2589 |
2590 |
-35 |
-34 |
| 40 |
GM |
Nguyen, Thai Dai Van |
2623 |
2516 |
2563 |
-107 |
-60 |
| 41 |
GM |
Puranik, Abhimanyu |
2622 |
2530 |
2566 |
-92 |
-56 |
| 42 |
GM |
Aditya Mittal |
2621 |
2449 |
2393 |
-172 |
-228 |
| 43 |
GM |
Woodward, Andy |
2619 |
2542 |
2540 |
-77 |
-79 |
| 44 |
GM |
Grebnev, Aleksey |
2614 |
2544 |
2498 |
-70 |
-116 |
| 45 |
GM |
Madaminov, Mukhiddin |
2612 |
2492 |
2596 |
-120 |
-16 |
| 46 |
GM |
Dardha, Daniel |
2612 |
2612 |
2581 |
0 |
-31 |
| 47 |
GM |
Gumularz, Szymon |
2609 |
2513 |
2611 |
-96 |
+2 |
| 48 |
GM |
Hong, Andrew |
2609 |
2563 |
2537 |
-46 |
-72 |
| 49 |
GM |
Samunenkov, Ihor |
2607 |
2489 |
2544 |
-118 |
-63 |
| 50 |
GM |
Pranav Anand |
2606 |
2464 |
2481 |
-142 |
-125 |
| 51 |
GM |
Albornoz Cabrera, Carlos Daniel |
2605 |
2616 |
2550 |
+11 |
-55 |
| 52 |
GM |
Bharath Subramaniyam H |
2603 |
2475 |
2546 |
-128 |
-57 |
| 53 |
GM |
Tin, Jingyao |
2602 |
2506 |
2491 |
-96 |
-111 |
| 54 |
GM |
Xiao, Tong(QD) |
2598 |
2472 |
2490 |
-126 |
-108 |
| 55 |
GM |
Malek, Jan |
2596 |
2411 |
2429 |
-185 |
-167 |
| 56 |
GM |
Engel, Luis |
2592 |
2452 |
2455 |
-140 |
-137 |
| 57 |
GM |
Nesterov, Arseniy |
2590 |
2581 |
2535 |
-9 |
-55 |
| 58 |
GM |
Yoo, Christopher Woojin |
2588 |
2501 |
2598 |
-87 |
+10 |
| 59 |
GM |
Finek, Vaclav |
2587 |
2475 |
2527 |
-112 |
-60 |
| 60 |
GM |
Dudin, Gleb |
2583 |
2519 |
2416 |
-64 |
-167 |
| 61 |
GM |
Iniyan, Pa |
2581 |
2463 |
2440 |
-118 |
-141 |
| 62 |
GM |
Makhnev, Denis |
2581 |
2537 |
2530 |
-44 |
-51 |
| 63 |
GM |
Ivic, Velimir |
2581 |
2498 |
2524 |
-83 |
-57 |
| 64 |
GM |
Movahed, Sina |
2576 |
2446 |
2524 |
-130 |
-52 |
| 65 |
GM |
Daneshvar, Bardiya |
2571 |
2532 |
2549 |
-39 |
-22 |
| 66 |
GM |
Teclaf, Pawel |
2571 |
2535 |
2585 |
-36 |
+14 |
| 67 |
GM |
Lodici, Lorenzo |
2568 |
2510 |
2525 |
-58 |
-43 |
| 68 |
GM |
Amar, Elham |
2567 |
2521 |
2579 |
-46 |
+12 |
| 69 |
GM |
Schoppen, Casper |
2564 |
2580 |
2575 |
+16 |
+11 |
| 70 |
GM |
Zemlyanskii, Ivan |
2563 |
2564 |
2535 |
+1 |
-28 |
| 71 |
GM |
Abdisalimov, Abdimalik |
2562 |
2443 |
2470 |
-119 |
-92 |
| 72 |
GM |
Can, Isik |
2560 |
2450 |
2443 |
-110 |
-117 |
| 73 |
GM |
Horvath, Dominik |
2560 |
2427 |
2478 |
-133 |
-82 |
| 74 |
GM |
Zhu, Jiner |
2559 |
2444 |
2397 |
-115 |
-162 |
| 75 |
GM |
Gholami Orimi, Mahdi |
2558 |
2483 |
2523 |
-75 |
-35 |
| 76 |
GM |
Makarian, Rudik |
2557 |
2562 |
2577 |
+5 |
+20 |
| 77 |
GM |
Xue, Haowen |
2556 |
2482 |
2422 |
-74 |
-134 |
| 78 |
GM |
Costa, Leonardo |
2555 |
2310 |
2414 |
-245 |
-141 |
| 79 |
GM |
Vetokhin, Savva |
2555 |
2516 |
2514 |
-39 |
-41 |
| 80 |
GM |
Kazakouski, Valery |
2554 |
2548 |
2537 |
-6 |
-17 |
| 81 |
GM |
Samant Aditya S |
2554 |
2339 |
2388 |
-215 |
-166 |
| 82 |
GM |
Van Foreest, Lucas |
2554 |
2463 |
2557 |
-91 |
+3 |
| 83 |
GM |
Kong, Xiangrui |
2553 |
2390 |
2469 |
-163 |
-84 |
| 84 |
GM |
Moroni, Luca Jr |
2552 |
2539 |
2535 |
-13 |
-17 |
| 85 |
GM |
Ahmadzada, Ahmad |
2552 |
2413 |
2338 |
-139 |
-214 |
| 86 |
GM |
Lomasov, Semyon |
2551 |
2550 |
2485 |
-1 |
-66 |
| 87 |
GM |
Laurent-Paoli, Pierre |
2550 |
2530 |
2476 |
-20 |
-74 |
| 88 |
GM |
Oro, Faustino |
2549 |
2538 |
2561 |
-11 |
+12 |
| 89 |
GM |
Suyarov, Mukhammadzokhid |
2549 |
2428 |
2556 |
-121 |
+7 |
| 90 |
GM |
Blohberger, Felix |
2549 |
2460 |
2433 |
-89 |
-116 |
| 91 |
GM |
Gazik, Viktor |
2549 |
2474 |
2494 |
-75 |
-55 |
| 92 |
GM |
Gorshtein, Ido |
2548 |
2515 |
2435 |
-33 |
-113 |
| 93 |
GM |
Petkov, Momchil |
2547 |
2467 |
2407 |
-80 |
-140 |
| 94 |
GM |
Sonis, Francesco |
2547 |
2571 |
2463 |
+24 |
-84 |
| 95 |
GM |
Aronyak Ghosh |
2546 |
2476 |
2497 |
-70 |
-49 |
| 96 |
GM |
Afanasiev, Nikita |
2543 |
2512 |
2498 |
-31 |
-45 |
| 97 |
GM |
Warmerdam, Max |
2543 |
2509 |
2574 |
-34 |
+31 |
| 98 |
GM |
Sokolovsky, Yahli |
2542 |
2441 |
2423 |
-101 |
-119 |
| 99 |
GM |
Livaic, Leon |
2541 |
2526 |
2564 |
-15 |
+23 |
| 100 |
IM |
Aswath, S |
2540 |
2371 |
2390 |
-169 |
-150 |